How To Use RAG To Crowdsource Event Forecasts
Introduction
As someone who works with vector databases daily, I've become accustomed to the conventional applications of Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) in scenarios such as extracting information from dense user manuals, navigating complex code bases, or conducting in-depth legal research. These "talk to your documents" use cases, while impressive, often revolve around similar challenges across different datasets, which can become somewhat monotonous.
So, it was particularly refreshing when I came across the paper "Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models" by researchers Danny Halawi, Fred Zhang, Chen Yueh-Han, and Jacob Steinhardt from UC Berkeley. They propose a novel (at least to me) use of RAG: forecasting events!
In this blog post, we'll take a detailed walk through of a sample prediction from start to finish to understand how the system employs prompt engineering to drive its predictions and conclude with a brief overview of the results.
Problem Statement
Imagine it's now June 15, 2023, and you're an avid Reddit user. Naturally, you're keenly interested in the following question:
Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?
and to give you a bit more context, here's a brief overview of the situation:
In April 2023, Reddit announced new terms for its Application Programming Interface (API), the tool through which developers of third-party apps access Reddit's data. This change included the introduction of pricing for API usage, a significant departure from the previous practice of providing the API for free. This led to an outcry from both developers and users of third-party Reddit apps, as these changes could result in substantial costs for developers and the potential shutdown of many popular third-party apps.
The developer of the popular third-party app, Apollo for Reddit, Christian Selig, stated he would be liable for an annual cost of $20 million under the new terms. This revelation sparked widespread discontent among Reddit users, leading to a coordinated protest involving more than 8,000 Reddit communities, including some of the largest and most active, going dark. Some communities have pledged to remain private indefinitely until Reddit makes changes. Reddit's CEO, Steve Huffman, has remained resolute regarding the API changes, emphasizing in an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session and internal memos that the company must proceed with the changes.
This stance is perceived as part of Reddit's broader effort to increase profitability, especially given the company's recent layoffs and plans to break even next year. However, the approach has escalated user dissatisfaction, with some speculating that the changes are an attempt to limit the viability of third-party apps and encourage users to migrate to the official Reddit app. Background co-written with ChatGPT.
This quesiton is actually from the dataset that the researchers curated from a few prediction markets platforms.
Let's explore how the RAG system presented in the paper would tackle this question. Spoiler alert: The system simulates a panel of experts by generating diverse predictions based on different data retrieval and prompting strategies. It then intelligently aggregates these responses to formulate a final, well-informed prediction!
The Mechanics
Step 1 Generate Comprehensive Search Queries
The system uses the internet as the knowledge base to form the basis of its judgement. In this post, we will just use Google News as the source to retrieve relevant information.
Now, we could just use the question as the search query, but that's not how an expert would approach the problem. An expert would break the problem down into smaller parts and search for information that would help them answer the sub-question. We can use an LLM to simulate an expert's thought proces with the following chain-of-thought prompt:
I will provide you with a forecasting question and the background information for the question. I will then ask you to generate short search queries (up to 8 words each) that I'll use to find articles on Google News to help answer the question.
Question:
Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?
Question Background:
In April 2023, Reddit announced new terms for its Application Programming Interface (API), the tool through which developers of third-party apps access Reddit's data. This change included the introduction of pricing for API usage, a significant departure from the previous practice of providing the API for free. This led to an outcry from both developers and users of third-party Reddit apps, as these changes could result in substantial costs for developers and the potential shutdown of many popular third-party apps.
The developer of the popular third-party app, Apollo for Reddit, Christian Selig, stated he would be liable for an annual cost of $20 million under the new terms. This revelation sparked widespread discontent among Reddit users, leading to a coordinated protest involving more than 8,000 Reddit communities, including some of the largest and most active, going dark. Some communities have pledged to remain private indefinitely until Reddit makes changes.
Reddit's CEO, Steve Huffman, has remained resolute regarding the API changes, emphasizing in an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session and internal memos that the company must proceed with the changes. This stance is perceived as part of Reddit's broader effort to increase profitability, especially given the company's recent layoffs and plans to break even next year. However, the approach has escalated user dissatisfaction, with some speculating that the changes are an attempt to limit the viability of third-party apps and encourage users to migrate to the official Reddit app.
Background co-written with ChatGPT.
Today's date: 2023-06-15
Question close date: 2023-06-16
You must generate this exact amount of queries: 3
Start off by writing down sub-questions. Then use your sub-questions to help steer the search queries you produce.
Your response should take the following structure:
Thoughts:
{ Insert your thinking here. }
Search Queries:
{ Insert the queries here. Use semicolons to separate the queries. }
this makes the LLM (using gpt-4-1106-preview) generate a response like the following:
Thoughts:
To answer the main question, we need to look for any recent developments or announcements from Reddit regarding the API fee pricing. The sub-questions that arise from this are:
1. Has Reddit made any recent announcements about the API fee pricing?
2. Is there any news on Reddit delaying the API fee implementation?
3. Are there any updates from Reddit's CEO or official channels about changes to the API pricing policy in response to the backlash?
These sub-questions will guide the search queries to find the most relevant and recent news articles that could indicate whether Reddit will announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before the given date.
Search Queries:
Reddit API fee pricing announcement; Reddit API fee delay news; Reddit CEO statement on API pricing changes;
So, according to the LLM, to answer the question Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?, we need to search for:
- Reddit API fee pricing announcement
- Reddit API fee delay news
- Reddit CEO statement on API pricing changes
Step 2 Deduplicate The Search Queries
Think of each prompt as a unique expert with a different perspective on the problem. We can generate a similar prompt to simulate another expert's thought process and generate a different set of search queries. This diversity in perspectives helps the system generate a more comprehensive set of search results.
For example, another prompt could be:
I will provide you with a forecasting question and the background information for the question.
Question:
Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?
Question Background:
In April 2023, Reddit announced new terms for its Application Programming Interface (API), the tool through which developers of third-party apps access Reddit's data. This change included the introduction of pricing for API usage, a significant departure from the previous practice of providing the API for free. This led to an outcry from both developers and users of third-party Reddit apps, as these changes could result in substantial costs for developers and the potential shutdown of many popular third-party apps.
The developer of the popular third-party app, Apollo for Reddit, Christian Selig, stated he would be liable for an annual cost of $20 million under the new terms. This revelation sparked widespread discontent among Reddit users, leading to a coordinated protest involving more than 8,000 Reddit communities, including some of the largest and most active, going dark. Some communities have pledged to remain private indefinitely until Reddit makes changes.
Reddit's CEO, Steve Huffman, has remained resolute regarding the API changes, emphasizing in an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session and internal memos that the company must proceed with the changes. This stance is perceived as part of Reddit's broader effort to increase profitability, especially given the company's recent layoffs and plans to break even next year. However, the approach has escalated user dissatisfaction, with some speculating that the changes are an attempt to limit the viability of third-party apps and encourage users to migrate to the official Reddit app.
Background co-written with ChatGPT.
Today's date: 2023-06-15
Question close date: 2023-06-16
Task:
- Generate brief search queries (up to 8 words each) to gather information on Google that could influence the forecast.
You must generate this exact amount of queries: 3
Your response should take the following structure:
Thoughts:
{ Insert your thinking here. }
Search Queries:
{ Insert the queries here. Use semicolons to separate the queries. }
which results in a response like:
Thoughts:
To forecast whether Reddit will announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing, we need to look for the most recent statements from Reddit or its CEO, any news on negotiations with developers, and the current sentiment or actions of the Reddit community. The search queries should be designed to capture any new developments, official announcements, or significant community actions that might pressure Reddit into changing its stance.
Search Queries:
Reddit API fee pricing update 2023; Steve Huffman Reddit API pricing statement; Reddit community response to API fees;
So, combining the two sets of search queries with the question and removing duplicates, we get the following set of search queries:
- Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?
- Reddit API fee delay news
- Steve Huffman Reddit API pricing statement
- Reddit API fee pricing announcement
- Reddit API fee pricing update
- Reddit community response to API fees
- Reddit CEO statement on API pricing changes
Step 3 Retrieve News Articles
This part is straightforward. For each search query, we can retrieve the top n articles from Google News.
Step 4 Pick The Most Relevant Articles
The top search results may not actually contain relevant information to answer our question. So, these need to be removed from further consideration.
We can ask an LLM to help us with this task. Here's a prompt to decide if an article is helpful in answering the question or not:
Please consider the following forecasting question and its background information.
After that, I will give you a news article and ask you to rate its relevance with respect to the forecasting question.
Question:
Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?
Question Background:
In April 2023, Reddit announced new terms for its Application Programming Interface (API), the tool through which developers of third-party apps access Reddit's data. This change included the introduction of pricing for API usage, a significant departure from the previous practice of providing the API for free. This led to an outcry from both developers and users of third-party Reddit apps, as these changes could result in substantial costs for developers and the potential shutdown of many popular third-party apps.
The developer of the popular third-party app, Apollo for Reddit, Christian Selig, stated he would be liable for an annual cost of $20 million under the new terms. This revelation sparked widespread discontent among Reddit users, leading to a coordinated protest involving more than 8,000 Reddit communities, including some of the largest and most active, going dark. Some communities have pledged to remain private indefinitely until Reddit makes changes.
Reddit's CEO, Steve Huffman, has remained resolute regarding the API changes, emphasizing in an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session and internal memos that the company must proceed with the changes. This stance is perceived as part of Reddit's broader effort to increase profitability, especially given the company's recent layoffs and plans to break even next year. However, the approach has escalated user dissatisfaction, with some speculating that the changes are an attempt to limit the viability of third-party apps and encourage users to migrate to the official Reddit app.
Background co-written with ChatGPT.
Question Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve as Yes if, before July 1, 2023, Reddit announces changes or a delay of implementation to the pricing of its newly announced data API fees for apps that require higher usage. The pricing will be considered to have changed or delayed if Reddit announces any of the following:
That they will charge anything other than "$0.24 per 1K API calls" or an equivalent amount.
Any change to their threshold for free API usage of "100 queries per minute per OAuth client id if you are using OAuth authentication and 10 queries per minute if you are not using OAuth authentication".
That the new pricing will take effect on a date later than July 1, 2023.
Other rates or implementation dates reported to be negotiated with individual organizations do not qualify, this question is asking about the broader official fee structure policy. Metaculus will make the final determination as to whether an announcement qualifies and may annul the question in the event it is unclear whether an announcement meets these criteria.
Article:
---
(Below I provide the first 250 tokens of the article.)
Title: Despite widespread user protest, Reddit CEO says company is ‘not negotiating’ on 3rd-party app charges
WASHINGTON (AP) — If you hopped on Reddit to scroll through your favorite forums this week, you may have encountered “private” or “restricted” messages. That’s because thousands of subreddits chose to go dark in an ongoing protest of some controversial changes announced by the online discussion network.
The blackout, which began Monday, emerged out of outrage over Reddit’s upcoming changes to its application programming interface (API) access — notably the company’s plan to start charging high usage third-party apps, who have long-used the Reddit data at no cost to build resources for users not available through the official site or app.
Organizers of the protest say that Reddit’s new policy threatens to end key ways of historically customizing the platform, which relies heavily on the volunteer labor of subreddit moderators. Many users currently rely on third-party apps to access features that are unavailable in the official Reddit app, particularly for content moderation and access
---
Please rate the relevance of the article to the question, at the scale of 1-6
1 -- irrelevant
2 -- slightly relevant
3 -- somewhat relevant
4 -- relevant
5 -- highly relevant
6 -- most relevant
Guidelines:
- You don't need to access any external sources. Just consider the information provided.
- Focus on the content of the article, not the title.
- If the text content is an error message about JavaScript, paywall, cookies or other technical issues, output a score of 1.
Your response should look like the following:
Thoughts: { insert your thinking }
Rating: { insert your rating }
and for that article, the LLM says:
Thoughts: The article discusses the ongoing protest and outrage over Reddit's upcoming changes to its API access, which directly relates to the background information about Reddit's announcement of new terms for its API. It also mentions the potential impact on third-party apps and the dissatisfaction among users and moderators. However, it does not provide any specific information about whether Reddit will announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023.
Rating: 4
Note that we've also included the conditions under which the question is considered resolved (see Question Resolution Criteria) as part of the prompt's context to help the LLM determine the relevance of the article.
We can use this approach to consider any article with a rating of 4 or higher as relevant and discard the rest.
Step 5 Summarize The Relevant Articles
News articles can be lengthy and LLMs have limited context windows. So, we can ask an LLM to summarize the relevant articles for us so that we can stuff it with as much useful and diverse information as possible. For example, we can limit ourselves to the top 20 most relevant articles and ask the LLM to summarize them.
Here's the prompt to summarize an article:
I want to make the following article shorter (condense it to no more than 100 words).
Article:
---
{article}
---
When doing this task for me, please do not remove any details that would be helpful for making considerations about the following forecasting question.
Forecasting Question: Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?
Question Background: In April 2023, Reddit announced new terms for its Application Programming Interface (API), the tool through which developers of third-party apps access Reddit's data. This change included the introduction of pricing for API usage, a significant departure from the previous practice of providing the API for free. This led to an outcry from both developers and users of third-party Reddit apps, as these changes could result in substantial costs for developers and the potential shutdown of many popular third-party apps.
The developer of the popular third-party app, Apollo for Reddit, Christian Selig, stated he would be liable for an annual cost of $20 million under the new terms. This revelation sparked widespread discontent among Reddit users, leading to a coordinated protest involving more than 8,000 Reddit communities, including some of the largest and most active, going dark. Some communities have pledged to remain private indefinitely until Reddit makes changes.
Reddit's CEO, Steve Huffman, has remained resolute regarding the API changes, emphasizing in an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session and internal memos that the company must proceed with the changes. This stance is perceived as part of Reddit's broader effort to increase profitability, especially given the company's recent layoffs and plans to break even next year. However, the approach has escalated user dissatisfaction, with some speculating that the changes are an attempt to limit the viability of third-party apps and encourage users to migrate to the official Reddit app.
Background co-written with ChatGPT.
Notice that we emphasize not removing any details that would be helpful for making considerations about the forecasting question. This is to ensure that the summary retains the most relevant information for the question we want answered.
Step 6 Generate Predictions
Now that we have a set of summarized articles, we can go to an expert and ask for their prediction. We can simulate this with an LLM by asking it to generate a prediction based on the summarized articles with the following prompt template:
Question:
{question}
Question Background:
{background}
Resolution Criteria:
{resolution_criteria}
Today's date: {date_begin}
Question close date: {date_end}
We have retrieved the following information for this question:
{retrieved_info}
Instructions:
1. Write down any additional relevant information that is not included above. This should be specific facts that you already know the answer to, rather than information that needs to be looked up.
{{ Insert additional information }}
2. Provide at least 3 reasons why the answer might be no.
{{ Insert your thoughts }}
3. Provide at least 3 reasons why the answer might be yes.
{{ Insert your thoughts }}
4. Rate the strength of each of the reasons given in the last two responses. Think like a superforecaster (e.g. Nate Silver).
{{ Insert your rating of the strength of each reason }}
5. Aggregate your considerations.
{{ Insert your aggregated considerations }}
6. Output your answer (a number between 0 and 1) with an asterisk at the beginning and end of the decimal.
{{ Insert your answer }}
or, this would work too:
Question:
{question}
Question Background:
{background}
Resolution Criteria:
{resolution_criteria}
Today's date: {date_begin}
Question close date: {date_end}
We have retrieved the following information for this question:
{retrieved_info}
Think step by step: {{ Insert your step by step consideration }}
Aggregating considerations: {{ Aggregate your considerations }}
Answer: {{ Output your answer (a number between 0 and 1) with an asterisk at the beginning and end of the decimal }}
This way, we can generate a diverse set of predictions based on the information retrieved from the summarized articles. Furthermore, if we have access to more than one LLM, we can generate even more diverse predictions by pairing different LLMs with different prompts. So, if we have 2 LLMs, we can have 4 diverse predictions by pairing each LLM with the 2 prompts above.
To save space, here's just the response from the LLM using the second prompt template:
Think step by step:
1. The CEO of Reddit, Steve Huffman, has faced significant backlash from developers and users alike regarding the proposed API pricing changes set to take place on July 1, 2023.
2. Despite protests involving more than 8,000 communities going dark, Huffman has repeatedly emphasized the company’s stand on not negotiating the decision, which suggests a strong likelihood of the changes being implemented as initially stated.
3. The background information and articles consistently highlight Reddit's firm stance and the CEO's repeated confirmation that they are moving forward with the pricing changes.
4. There has been mention of widespread discontent and the potential for continued or even indefinite protests, but there does not appear to be a significant movement or pressure that could cause the CEO to reverse or delay the decision.
5. Based on the articles, there is no indication that Reddit is considering changing or delaying the implementation. Instead, the CEO has downplayed the protests and emphasized the need for the company to proceed with the changes.
Aggregating considerations:
Every related article points toward Reddit’s CEO Steve Huffman's resolution to implement the API changes without delay or alterations. While discontent and protests are significant, there has been no statement or indication from official Reddit communications suggesting an openness to altering or postponing the fee implementation.
Answer:
Given the current information and the firm stance of Reddit's CEO, there is insufficient evidence to suggest that Reddit will change or delay the proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023.
*0.1*
Step 7 Ensemble Predictions
Now we have a set of 4 predictions from diverse "experts" that we can ensemble to get a final prediction. There are many ways we can go about doing this e.g. majority vote, weighted majority vote, etc. But since we've been relying on LLMs to do most of the work, why not use an LLM to ensemble the predictions? Here's a prompt template to do just that:
I need your assistance with making a forecast. Here is the question and its metadata.
Question: {question}
Background: {background}
Resolution criteria: {resolution_criteria}
Today's date: {date_begin}
Question close date: {date_end}
I have retrieved the following information about this question.
Retrieved Info:
{retrieved_info}
In addition, I have generated a collection of other responses and reasonings from other forecasters:
{base_reasonings}
Your goal is to aggregate the information and make a final prediction.
Instructions:
1. Provide reasons why the answer might be no.
{{ Insert your thoughts here }}
2. Provide reasons why the answer might be yes.
{{ Insert your thoughts here }}
3. Aggregate your considerations.
{{ Insert your aggregated considerations here }}
4. Output your prediction (a number between 0 and 1) with an asterisk at the beginning and end of the decimal.
{{ Insert the probability here }}
and the filled template would look like:
I need your assistance with making a forecast. Here is the question and its metadata.
Question: Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?
Background: In April 2023, Reddit announced new terms for its Application Programming Interface (API), the tool through which developers of third-party apps access Reddit's data. This change included the introduction of pricing for API usage, a significant departure from the previous practice of providing the API for free. This led to an outcry from both developers and users of third-party Reddit apps, as these changes could result in substantial costs for developers and the potential shutdown of many popular third-party apps.
The developer of the popular third-party app, Apollo for Reddit, Christian Selig, stated he would be liable for an annual cost of $20 million under the new terms. This revelation sparked widespread discontent among Reddit users, leading to a coordinated protest involving more than 8,000 Reddit communities, including some of the largest and most active, going dark. Some communities have pledged to remain private indefinitely until Reddit makes changes.
Reddit's CEO, Steve Huffman, has remained resolute regarding the API changes, emphasizing in an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session and internal memos that the company must proceed with the changes. This stance is perceived as part of Reddit's broader effort to increase profitability, especially given the company's recent layoffs and plans to break even next year. However, the approach has escalated user dissatisfaction, with some speculating that the changes are an attempt to limit the viability of third-party apps and encourage users to migrate to the official Reddit app.
Background co-written with ChatGPT.
Resolution criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if, before July 1, 2023, Reddit announces changes or a delay of implementation to the pricing of its newly announced data API fees for apps that require higher usage. The pricing will be considered to have changed or delayed if Reddit announces any of the following:
That they will charge anything other than "$0.24 per 1K API calls" or an equivalent amount.
Any change to their threshold for free API usage of "100 queries per minute per OAuth client id if you are using OAuth authentication and 10 queries per minute if you are not using OAuth authentication".
That the new pricing will take effect on a date later than July 1, 2023.
Other rates or implementation dates reported to be negotiated with individual organizations do not qualify, this question is asking about the broader official fee structure policy. Metaculus will make the final determination as to whether an announcement qualifies and may annul the question in the event it is unclear whether an announcement meets these criteria.
Today's date: 2023-06-16
Question close date: 2023-06-30
I have retrieved the following information about this question.
Retrieved Info:
---
ARTICLES
[1] <omitted for brevity>
[2] <omitted for brevity>
[3] <omitted for brevity>
[4] <omitted for brevity>
[5] <omitted for brevity>
[6] <omitted for brevity>
[7] <omitted for brevity>
[8] <omitted for brevity>
[9] <omitted for brevity>
[10] <omitted for brevity>
[11] <omitted for brevity>
----
In addition, I have generated a collection of other responses and reasonings from other forecasters:
---
Response from forecaster 1:
1. There is no additional information to provide.
2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- CEO Steve Huffman has repeatedly emphasized the necessity of the API fee changes for Reddit's profitability and sustainability and has remained resolute in the face of backlash, suggesting a firm commitment to the new pricing structure.
- The company's statements so far have indicated a clear stance against negotiation or alteration of the planned pricing, which suggests they are prepared to withstand a significant amount of community backlash without changing course.
- From a business perspective, changing the pricing plan now could set a precedent where Reddit might be seen as bending under pressure, potentially weakening its position in future negotiations or policy rollouts.
3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- The ongoing, widespread protest involving thousands of subreddits and key developers expressing outrage could be a significant pressure point, especially if the protest escalates or continues for a prolonged period, potentially harming Reddit's brand image and user satisfaction.
- If advertisers or other revenue-generating partners express concerns or withdraw their business due to the negative press and user reactions, Reddit may be financially incentivized to revise or delay the pricing changes.
- The potential shutdown of popular third-party apps and services could lead to a significant loss of user engagement, which Reddit may seek to mitigate by altering the course of their decision before it causes irreparable damage to their user base.
4. Rating the strength of each reason:
- The CEO's repeated emphasis on the necessity of changes: Strong. Public statements by company leaders often give insight into the company's strategic direction, and Huffman's consistent messaging indicates a strong resolve.
- Stance against negotiation: Moderate to Strong. While the company has been clear about its plans, there's always room for strategic shifts if new data or circumstances arise.
- Concern about setting a precedent: Moderate. While businesses aim to maintain a strong negotiating position, user and community backlash of this scale can prompt a reassessment of policies.
- Ongoing widespread protests: Moderate to Strong. Although Reddit seems determined, it is ultimately a community-driven platform, and sustained backlash can be very influential.
- Reaction from advertisers and partners: Moderate. Financial concerns carry significant weight, but it is unclear how partners are responding.
- Loss of user engagement: Moderate. The potential long-term impact on user engagement poses a risk to Reddit's health as a platform, though the company may be betting on absorbing or outlasting these impacts.
5. Aggregate your considerations:
Considering the CEO's firm stance, the company's clear positioning against changes, and the desire to avoid setting a precedent, it seems probable that Reddit will follow through with the API fee introduction as planned. Nonetheless, if the protests continue to escalate and if there is significant pushback from advertisers and a clear decline in user engagement, there could be a strategic reconsideration. However, such developments would have to outweigh the company's current commitment to the pricing changes.
6. Output your answer:
Considering all the information and arguments listed above, my confidence level in Reddit not announcing changes or a delay leans towards 'no'. It seems that while there may be pressure, the company is quite steadfast in its position.
*0.75*
-
Response from forecaster 2:
<omitted for brevity>
Answer: *0.1*
-
Response from forecaster 3:
<omitted for brevity>
7. Final answer:
*0.35*
-
Response from forecaster 4:
<omitted for brevity>
7. Output final answer:
*0.25*
---
Your goal is to aggregate the information and make a final prediction.
Instructions:
1. Provide reasons why the answer might be no.
{ Insert your thoughts here }
2. Provide reasons why the answer might be yes.
{ Insert your thoughts here }
3. Aggregate your considerations.
{ Insert your aggregated considerations here }
4. Output your prediction (a number between 0 and 1) with an asterisk at the beginning and end of the decimal.
{ Insert the probability here }
and the response is:
1. Provide reasons why the answer might be no.
- Reddit's CEO, Steve Huffman, has consistently emphasized the necessity of the API fee changes for the company's profitability and sustainability. His firm stance suggests a strong commitment to the new pricing structure.
- The company has indicated a clear stance against negotiation or alteration of the planned pricing, suggesting they are prepared to withstand a significant amount of community backlash without changing course.
- From a business perspective, changing the pricing plan now could set a precedent where Reddit might be seen as bending under pressure, potentially weakening its position in future negotiations or policy rollouts.
- Huffman has downplayed the impact of the protests, suggesting that he believes they do not represent a significant enough portion of the user base to warrant a change in policy.
2. Provide reasons why the answer might be yes.
- The ongoing, widespread protest involving thousands of subreddits and key developers expressing outrage could be a significant pressure point, especially if the protest escalates or continues for a prolonged period, potentially harming Reddit's brand image and user satisfaction.
- If advertisers or other revenue-generating partners express concerns or withdraw their business due to the negative press and user reactions, Reddit may be financially incentivized to revise or delay the pricing changes.
- The potential shutdown of popular third-party apps and services could lead to a significant loss of user engagement, which Reddit may seek to mitigate by altering the course of their decision before it causes irreparable damage to their user base.
3. Aggregate your considerations.
Considering the CEO's firm stance, the company's clear positioning against changes, and the desire to avoid setting a precedent, it seems probable that Reddit will follow through with the API fee introduction as planned. Nonetheless, if the protests continue to escalate and if there is significant pushback from advertisers and a clear decline in user engagement, there could be a strategic reconsideration. However, such developments would have to outweigh the company's current commitment to the pricing changes.
4. Output your prediction (a number between 0 and 1) with an asterisk at the beginning and end of the decimal.
*0.35*
So, according to our crowd of "experts", the probability of Reddit announcing changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023 is 0.35.
The Results
The benchmark used to measure the performance of the RAG system is the crowd. More specifically, the researchers compare the RAG system's predictions to the aggregate prediction that the prediction markets platforms compute as participants submit their forecasts.
To assess how close these predictions are to the actual outcomes, the Brier score is employed as an evaluation metric. It calculates the difference between the predicted probability of an event happening (ranging from 0 to 1) and the actual outcome (which is either 0 or 1), squares this difference, and averages it over all predictions. A lower Brier score indicates more accurate forecasts. For example, a completely random predictor would score 0.25, while a perfectly accurate predictor scores 0.
A question is assigned a category. Here is a table comparing the Brier scores of the RAG system to the crowd's predictions for different categories:
We see that for each category and and across all categories, the RAG system ("Ours") underperforms compared to the Crowd.
However, the researchers found certain situations where the RAG system outperformed the crowd. Notably:
First, our system significantly outperforms the crowd when the crowd’s predictions express high uncertainty. Specifically, when the crowd’s predictions are between .3 and .7, our Brier score is .199 compared to the crowd’s .246. However, our system underperforms the crowd on questions where they are highly certain, likely because it rarely outputs low probabilities (Figure 4b). We hypothesize that this stems from our model’s tendency to hedge predictions due to its safety training (see Figure 17 for a qualitative example). Supporting this, our system achieves 7% higher accuracy on questions where the crowd’s prediction is within .05 of 0 or 1, but the Brier score is worse by .04.
Furhermore, the researchers found that their RAG System can complement the crowd's predictions:
Combining the system’s predictions with the crowd using a weighted average—4x weight for the crowd, which we find optimal on the validation set—improves the overall Brier score from .149 to .146 on the full test set (Table 3, top row).
Conclusion
It's clear that while the RAG system described in this paper may not outperform the crowd prediction, they come remarkably close. This proximity in performance highlights RAG's potential as a powerful tool for enhancing decision-making in complex scenarios. The ability of RAG systems to process and analyze vast datasets could, with further domain-specific fine-tuning, lead to improvements in predictive accuracy.
Moreover, these systems could fundamentally alter how decisions are made across various sectors by providing a robust, data-driven foundation for predictions. Imagine a future where autonomous agents, powered by advanced LLMs and retrieval techniques and connected to extensive public and private knowledge bases, participate in prediction markets. This could bring efficiencies reminiscent of high-frequency trading bots in financial markets. Such advancements could democratize data-driven decision-making, making high-quality forecasts more accessible and reducing biases inherent in human analysis.