How To Use RAG To Crowdsource Event Forecasts
Introduction
As someone who works with vector databases daily, I've become accustomed to the conventional applications of Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) in scenarios such as extracting information from dense user manuals, navigating complex code bases, or conducting in-depth legal research. These "talk to your documents" use cases, while impressive, often revolve around similar challenges across different datasets, which can become somewhat monotonous.
So, it was particularly refreshing when I came across the paper "Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models" by researchers Danny Halawi, Fred Zhang, Chen Yueh-Han, and Jacob Steinhardt from UC Berkeley. They propose a novel (at least to me) use of RAG: forecasting events!